Fast starts... The key to CAQ's 33-15 record isn't hard to figure out. To be sure, the offense is doing its part, currently placing 4th in runs scored, mainly as the result of a league-leading .348 OBP, and the bullpen isn't bad, with John Axford picking up 13 saves and posting a 1.27 ERA. But their top four starters -- Cole Hamels, Rick Vogelsong, Johnny Cueto, and (gulp) Derek Lowe -- are a combined 21-5 with a 1.57 ERA. Obviously, some regression to the mean is in order: I'm guessing the Lowe isn't going to continue to allow 6.7 H/9, as opposed to the 10.2 he actually allowed last season. But it's going to take some major falloffs to bring the Quakes back to the pack.
And slow ones... So far, TEX is the mystery team, 10 games under .500 after I'd pegged them to win 90+. A large part of the problem is the bullpen: they've got the second-highest ERA (4.09) and the second-worst save percentage (.471) in the league, which goes some ways toward explaining their 5-10 record in 1-run games. The real problem, though, is the hitting: Despite a lineup featuring Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval, and Justin Upton, the Armadillos are 8th in runs scored, primarily because those first four players are hitting .145, .178, .285, and .189 below their real-life OPS. Again, some regression to the mean is likely: Pence, who hit .314/.370/.502 with 23 HR's, is not going to hit .223/.296/.291 with 0. And keep in mind that just last year, Richmond won 90 games despite going .500 or worse in three of the season's six months.
Factoids. LIT leads the world in homers; its 74 is twice as many as six other teams in the league... VBO's Jonathan Sanchez has a 1-2 record, despite giving up only 4.9 H/9; walking 6 batters per 9 will do that... What does taking a Cy Young pitcher and putting him in Coors do, especially when he's a left-hander to boot? Boost his ERA from 2.28 to 4.00. Clayton Kershaw's H/9 hasn't jumped much (6.7 to 7.6), but going from giving up .6 HR/9 to 1.5 doesn't help... Fire HAL: BOW's road record is a respectable 13-14, but they're 4-17 at home... MAR kills lefties (8-3), but has trouble with righties (17-20), while MMM is the exact reverse: the Maulers have gone 21-13 against righties, but only 4-10 against normal people... RAZ is on a pace to steal 172 bases this season. That would be the third time in eight seasons that it's stolen over 170. The record is 199, by VBO in 2006... On the other side of the ledger, MAR is on pace to allow 189 SB's, which would be a record... And speaking of steals, MON needs a stop light: they've stolen 39 bases, but been caught 28 times, a paltry .582 success percent... WES's meager success to this point -- despite an offense which features only one player hitting above .268, and having been outscored by 15 runs on the season, they're two games over .500 -- is attributable to its bullpen. Their bullpen ERA is a league-leading 2.37, and they've blown only two saves in 23 chances, also a league best.
Studs... LIT's Aramis Ramirez (.360/.428/.545); MAR's Ryan Theriot (.423 BA in 71 AB's) and Daniel Murphy (6 HR's, as many as he actually hit all last season); MON's Craig Kimbrel (0.89 ERA, 17 saves in 17 chances) and Brandon Beachy (5-1, 1.90); RAZ's Corey Hart (1.011 OPS, 12 HR's); WES's Mike Leake (5-1, 1.87).
and Duds... WAC's Matt Kemp, (.235/.330/.464, OPS .190 points less than real life); CRP's Ubaldo Jimenez (2-4, 6.33); MMM's Jonathan Niese (2-6, 6.64); WAC's Rickie Weeks (.191/.311/.322); WES's Randy Wolf (2-6, 5.76).
And slow ones... So far, TEX is the mystery team, 10 games under .500 after I'd pegged them to win 90+. A large part of the problem is the bullpen: they've got the second-highest ERA (4.09) and the second-worst save percentage (.471) in the league, which goes some ways toward explaining their 5-10 record in 1-run games. The real problem, though, is the hitting: Despite a lineup featuring Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval, and Justin Upton, the Armadillos are 8th in runs scored, primarily because those first four players are hitting .145, .178, .285, and .189 below their real-life OPS. Again, some regression to the mean is likely: Pence, who hit .314/.370/.502 with 23 HR's, is not going to hit .223/.296/.291 with 0. And keep in mind that just last year, Richmond won 90 games despite going .500 or worse in three of the season's six months.
Factoids. LIT leads the world in homers; its 74 is twice as many as six other teams in the league... VBO's Jonathan Sanchez has a 1-2 record, despite giving up only 4.9 H/9; walking 6 batters per 9 will do that... What does taking a Cy Young pitcher and putting him in Coors do, especially when he's a left-hander to boot? Boost his ERA from 2.28 to 4.00. Clayton Kershaw's H/9 hasn't jumped much (6.7 to 7.6), but going from giving up .6 HR/9 to 1.5 doesn't help... Fire HAL: BOW's road record is a respectable 13-14, but they're 4-17 at home... MAR kills lefties (8-3), but has trouble with righties (17-20), while MMM is the exact reverse: the Maulers have gone 21-13 against righties, but only 4-10 against normal people... RAZ is on a pace to steal 172 bases this season. That would be the third time in eight seasons that it's stolen over 170. The record is 199, by VBO in 2006... On the other side of the ledger, MAR is on pace to allow 189 SB's, which would be a record... And speaking of steals, MON needs a stop light: they've stolen 39 bases, but been caught 28 times, a paltry .582 success percent... WES's meager success to this point -- despite an offense which features only one player hitting above .268, and having been outscored by 15 runs on the season, they're two games over .500 -- is attributable to its bullpen. Their bullpen ERA is a league-leading 2.37, and they've blown only two saves in 23 chances, also a league best.
Studs... LIT's Aramis Ramirez (.360/.428/.545); MAR's Ryan Theriot (.423 BA in 71 AB's) and Daniel Murphy (6 HR's, as many as he actually hit all last season); MON's Craig Kimbrel (0.89 ERA, 17 saves in 17 chances) and Brandon Beachy (5-1, 1.90); RAZ's Corey Hart (1.011 OPS, 12 HR's); WES's Mike Leake (5-1, 1.87).
and Duds... WAC's Matt Kemp, (.235/.330/.464, OPS .190 points less than real life); CRP's Ubaldo Jimenez (2-4, 6.33); MMM's Jonathan Niese (2-6, 6.64); WAC's Rickie Weeks (.191/.311/.322); WES's Randy Wolf (2-6, 5.76).
RSS Feed
